Pollster and election
Institut Wahlkreisprognose on the Saxony state election
13 polls since 13 October 2021, the latest from 31 August 2024 for Institut Wahlkreisprognose. Against the current average of all pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU +12.0 and AfD -11.0.
- CDU33.0%-1.5
- AfD31.0%+1.0
- BSW13.5%-0.5
- SPD6.0%+1.0
- Grüne5.5%+1.0
- Linke3.0%-1.5
- Others8.0%+1.5
33.0%
-1.5
CDU
31.0%
+1.0
AfD
13.5%
-0.5
BSW
6.0%
+1.0
SPD
5.5%
+1.0
Grüne
3.0%
-1.5
Linke
8.0%
+1.5
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 Aug 2024.
Trend
All Institut Wahlkreisprognose figures for the Saxony state election
Accuracy
Institut Wahlkreisprognose before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 1 Sep 2024 (poll 31 Aug 2024)1.1 ptsbiggest miss BSW +1.7
Archive
All 13 polls
| Pollster | Published | CDU | AfD | BSW | SPD | Grüne | Linke | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Aug 2024 | 33 | 31 | 13.5 | 6 | 5.5 | 3 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 21 Aug 2024 | 34.5 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 17 Mar 2024 | 31.5 | 31 | 13.5 | 6 | 6.5 | 3 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 11 Jan 2024 | 33.5 | 32 | – | 7 | 6 | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 10 Nov 2023 | 28.5 | 32.5 | – | 8.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 13.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 12 Jun 2023 | 30 | 32.5 | – | 10 | 7 | 9 | 6.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 28 May 2023 | 31 | 32 | – | 9.5 | 7 | 9.5 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 21 Dec 2022 | 29.5 | 31 | – | 10.5 | 9.5 | 8 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 20 Sep 2022 | 34 | 30 | – | 7 | 7 | 10 | 9 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 15 Jun 2022 | 35 | 28 | – | 9 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 17 May 2022 | 33 | 27 | – | 12 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 9 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Apr 2022 | 29 | 26.5 | – | 15 | 9 | 6 | 9.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 13 Oct 2021 | 22 | 25.5 | – | 19 | 9 | 7 | 7.5 |