Pollster and election
Institut Wahlkreisprognose on the Brandenburg state election
14 polls since 10 October 2020, the latest from 21 September 2024 for Institut Wahlkreisprognose. Against the current average of all pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD -8.5 and BSW +6.5. House effect since 24 Jun 2024: CDU -1.9, AfD +1.5, BSW -1.2.
- SPD28.0%+1.5
- AfD27.0%-1.5
- CDU13.5%-1.5
- BSW12.5%+0.5
- BVB/FW4.5%±0
- Grüne4.0%±0
- Linke3.5%±0
- FDP0.5%-0.5
- Others6.5%+1.5
28.0%
+1.5
SPD
27.0%
-1.5
AfD
13.5%
-1.5
CDU
12.5%
+0.5
BSW
4.5%
±0
BVB/FW
4.0%
±0
Grüne
3.5%
±0
Linke
0.5%
-0.5
FDP
6.5%
+1.5
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 19 Sep 2024.
Trend
All Institut Wahlkreisprognose figures for the Brandenburg state election
Accuracy
Institut Wahlkreisprognose before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 22 Sep 2024 (poll 21 Sep 2024)1.3 ptsbiggest miss SPD -2.9
Archive
All 14 polls
| Pollster | Published | SPD | AfD | CDU | BSW | BVB/FW | Grüne | Linke | FDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 21 Sep 2024 | 28 | 27 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 6.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 19 Sep 2024 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 15 | 12 | 4.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 1 | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 5 Sep 2024 | 20.5 | 30 | 15 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 5.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Jun 2024 | 16 | 29 | 16.5 | 17 | 5.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 8 Apr 2024 | 21 | 27 | 15 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 7 | 5.5 | 2 | 7.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 2 Nov 2023 | 27 | 32 | 13.5 | – | 6 | 6.5 | 7 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 14 Aug 2023 | 25 | 30 | 15 | – | 7 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 13 Mar 2023 | 23.5 | 26 | 17 | – | 6.5 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 25 Nov 2022 | 26 | 26 | 13.5 | – | 7 | 10 | 8 | 3.5 | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 12 Sep 2022 | 26.5 | 25 | 12 | – | 7 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 6.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 17 May 2022 | 30 | 19 | 16 | – | 6 | 13 | 6 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Mar 2022 | 29 | 20 | 15 | – | 8 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 16 Oct 2021 | 32 | 19.5 | 9 | – | 9.5 | 9.5 | 7 | 7 | 6.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 10 Oct 2020 | 23 | 19 | 17 | – | 7.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 2 | 5.5 |