Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 October 2021 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 7 to 14 Oct 2021
- Respondents
- 980
- Method
- Online
- SPD32.0%+9.0
- AfD19.5%+0.5
- Grüne9.5%-4.0
- BVB/FW9.5%+2.0
- CDU9.0%-8.0
- FDP7.0%+5.0
- Linke7.0%-5.5
- Others6.5%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 10 Oct 2020.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 19.5%. 980 people were surveyed from 7 to 14 Oct 2021, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 10 Oct 2020, SPD gains 9.0 points, CDU loses 8.0 points, Linke loses 5.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU 4.0 points lower and AfD 2.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Oct 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU -4.0average 13.0
- AfD +2.5average 17.0
- BVB/FW +2.5average 7.0
- SPD -2.0average 34.0
- Linke -2.0average 9.0
- Grüne +1.5average 8.0
- FDP ±0average 7.0
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- SPD30
- AfD18
- Grüne9
- BVB/FW9
- CDU8
- FDP7
- Linke7
- SPD + AfD48 of 88
- SPD + Grüne + BVB/FW48 of 88
- SPD + Grüne + CDU47 of 88
- SPD + BVB/FW + CDU47 of 88
- SPD + Grüne + FDP46 of 88
- SPD + Grüne + Linke46 of 88
- SPD + BVB/FW + FDP46 of 88
- SPD + BVB/FW + Linke46 of 88
- SPD + CDU + FDP45 of 88
- SPD + CDU + Linke45 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.