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Pollster and election

Institut Wahlkreisprognose on the Berlin state election

17 polls since 25 March 2021, the latest from 3 August 2023 for Institut Wahlkreisprognose. Against the current average of all pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Linke -7.9 and CDU +4.9.

  • CDU24.5%-0.5
  • Grüne16.5%-2.0
  • SPD16.0%-3.5
  • AfD16.0%+7.0
  • Linke13.5%+0.5
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Others9.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 11 Feb 2023.

This poll in detail

Trend

All Institut Wahlkreisprognose figures for the Berlin state election

0102030Apr 21Jul 21Oct 21Jan 22Apr 22Jul 22Oct 22Jan 23Apr 23Jul 23CDUGrüneSPDAfDLinkeFDP
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 120 days. Period 25 Mar 2021 to 3 Aug 2023. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Accuracy

Institut Wahlkreisprognose before the last elections

Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.

  • Election 12 Feb 2023 (poll 11 Feb 2023)1.0 ptsbiggest miss CDU -3.2
  • Election 26 Sep 2021 (poll 24 Sep 2021)2.1 ptsbiggest miss Grüne -3.9
Archive

All 17 polls

Institut Wahlkreisprognose polls for the Berlin state election
PollsterPublishedCDUGrüneSPDAfDLinkeFDPOthers
Institut Wahlkreisprognose3 Aug 202324.516.5161613.549.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose11 Feb 20232518.519.5913510
Institut Wahlkreisprognose2 Feb 202322191911.512.55.56.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose9 Jan 202322.52019.51112.547.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose14 Dec 20222020.5201112.557
Institut Wahlkreisprognose17 Nov 202218.518.518.51214.56.58
Institut Wahlkreisprognose29 Oct 20221919.5191214.5511
Institut Wahlkreisprognose13 Oct 20222119181314510
Institut Wahlkreisprognose13 Aug 20221926.520.5910.559.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose25 May 20222129.5176.510.55.510
Institut Wahlkreisprognose24 Sep 202115.515251014.57.512.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose14 Sep 202114.514.52510.514.58.512.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose25 Aug 20211515.524.511159.59.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose31 Jul 20211815.52491599.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose7 Jul 202120162191410.56.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose11 May 202114.521.5191113116
Institut Wahlkreisprognose25 Mar 202116202110158.54.5

Other elections covered by this pollster

Election tickerNext electionSaarland207 daysLatest pollForsa, North Rhine-Westphalia23 Sep 2026CDU 29AfD 22Grüne 18Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 159 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections4 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

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