Pollster and election
Institut Wahlkreisprognose on the European election
7 polls since 26 February 2022, the latest from 8 June 2024 for Institut Wahlkreisprognose. Against the current average of all pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD -2.1 and BSW +1.1. House effect since 9 Jun 2022: SPD -4.2, CDU/CSU +1.4, AfD -1.3.
- CDU/CSU30.0%-0.5
- AfD15.5%+0.5
- Grüne13.5%-1.5
- SPD12.5%-1.0
- BSW7.5%+1.5
- FDP4.5%+0.5
- Linke2.5%-0.5
- Freie Wähler2.5%±0
- Others11.5%+4.0
30.0%
-0.5
CDU/CSU
15.5%
+0.5
AfD
13.5%
-1.5
Grüne
12.5%
-1.0
SPD
7.5%
+1.5
BSW
4.5%
+0.5
FDP
2.5%
-0.5
Linke
2.5%
±0
Freie Wähler
11.5%
+4.0
Others
Change compared with the Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 3 Jun 2024.
Trend
All Institut Wahlkreisprognose figures for the European election
Accuracy
Institut Wahlkreisprognose before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 9 Jun 2024 (poll 8 Jun 2024)0.7 ptsbiggest miss Grüne +1.6
Archive
All 7 polls
| Pollster | Published | CDU/CSU | AfD | Grüne | SPD | BSW | FDP | Linke | Freie Wähler | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 8 Jun 2024 | 30 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 11.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 3 Jun 2024 | 30.5 | 15 | 15 | 13.5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 22 May 2024 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 6.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Feb 2024 | 31.5 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 7.5 | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 21 Jan 2024 | 28 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 4.5 | 3 | 5 | 4.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 17 Dec 2022 | 22 | 18.5 | 21 | 21 | – | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 26 Feb 2022 | 22 | 12.5 | 19.5 | 22.5 | – | 7.5 | 3 | 3 | 3.5 |