Pollster and election
Institut Wahlkreisprognose on the Thuringia state election
10 polls since 14 April 2022, the latest from 31 August 2024 for Institut Wahlkreisprognose. Against the current average of all pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has BSW +10.5 and AfD -9.0.
- AfD31.0%+3.5
- CDU22.5%-0.5
- BSW17.5%-1.5
- Linke14.0%-1.5
- SPD5.0%+0.5
- Grüne2.5%±0
- Others7.5%+2.0
31.0%
+3.5
AfD
22.5%
-0.5
CDU
17.5%
-1.5
BSW
14.0%
-1.5
Linke
5.0%
+0.5
SPD
2.5%
±0
Grüne
7.5%
+2.0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 12 Aug 2024.
Trend
All Institut Wahlkreisprognose figures for the Thuringia state election
Accuracy
Institut Wahlkreisprognose before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 1 Sep 2024 (poll 31 Aug 2024)1.2 ptsbiggest miss AfD -1.8
Archive
All 10 polls
| Pollster | Published | AfD | CDU | BSW | Linke | SPD | Grüne | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Aug 2024 | 31 | 22.5 | 17.5 | 14 | 5 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 12 Aug 2024 | 27.5 | 23 | 19 | 15.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 26 Dec 2023 | 36.5 | 16 | – | 27 | 7 | 3 | 6.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 28 May 2023 | 30 | 17.5 | – | 25 | 10 | 4 | 7.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 11 Dec 2022 | 30 | 15 | – | 27 | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Oct 2022 | 28 | 17.5 | – | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 7 Sep 2022 | 28 | 20.5 | – | 22 | 11 | 5.5 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 15 Jun 2022 | 26 | 16 | – | 24 | 14 | 7 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 30 May 2022 | 23 | 18 | – | 24 | 16 | 7 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 14 Apr 2022 | 21 | 19 | – | 20 | 20 | 5 | 7 |