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Pollster and election

Institut Wahlkreisprognose on the Schleswig-Holstein state election

12 polls since 26 October 2021, the latest from 2 October 2023 for Institut Wahlkreisprognose. Against the current average of all pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Linke -5.0 and SSW +3.5.

  • CDU32.5%-3.5
  • Grüne18.0%-5.0
  • AfD15.0%+7.0
  • SPD14.0%-2.0
  • SSW9.0%+3.0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke1.5%
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 2 Nov 2022.

This poll in detail

Trend

All Institut Wahlkreisprognose figures for the Schleswig-Holstein state election

01020304050Nov 21Jan 22Mar 22May 22Jul 22Sep 22Nov 22Jan 23Mar 23May 23Jul 23Sep 23CDUGrüneAfDSPDSSWFDPLinke
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 180 days. Period 26 Oct 2021 to 2 Oct 2023. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Accuracy

Institut Wahlkreisprognose before the last elections

Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.

  • Election 8 May 2022 (poll 6 May 2022)1.3 ptsbiggest miss CDU -4.4
Archive

All 12 polls

Institut Wahlkreisprognose polls for the Schleswig-Holstein state election
PollsterPublishedCDUGrüneAfDSPDSSWFDPLinkeOthers
Institut Wahlkreisprognose2 Oct 202332.5181514951.55
Institut Wahlkreisprognose2 Nov 2022362381665–6
Institut Wahlkreisprognose23 May 20224223.54146523.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose6 May 20223917.55.517.55.5726
Institut Wahlkreisprognose29 Apr 20223917.5518.55726
Institut Wahlkreisprognose23 Apr 202239.5164.5214726
Institut Wahlkreisprognose3 Apr 202237174.52246.527
Institut Wahlkreisprognose11 Mar 20223519.5519.5592.54.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose20 Feb 202230176255935
Institut Wahlkreisprognose28 Jan 202231176255.5825.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose13 Dec 202124204294.512.524
Institut Wahlkreisprognose26 Oct 2021232232941423

Other elections covered by this pollster

Election tickerNext electionSaarland207 daysLatest pollForsa, North Rhine-Westphalia23 Sep 2026CDU 29AfD 22Grüne 18Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 159 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections4 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

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