Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 3 August 2023 for the Berlin state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 25 Jul 2023 to 2 Aug 2023
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU24.5%-0.5
- Grüne16.5%-2.0
- SPD16.0%-3.5
- AfD16.0%+7.0
- Linke13.5%+0.5
- FDP4.0%-1.0
- Others9.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 11 Feb 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 24.5%, followed by Grüne on 16.5%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 25 Jul 2023 to 2 Aug 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 11 Feb 2023, AfD gains 7.0 points, SPD loses 3.5 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 6.4 points higher and SPD 3.4 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Aug 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +6.4average 9.6
- SPD -3.4average 19.4
- Linke +2.1average 11.4
- FDP -1.8average 5.8
- CDU -1.5average 26.0
- Grüne -1.1average 17.6
Seat projection from this poll
130 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- CDU37
- Grüne25
- SPD24
- AfD24
- Linke20
- CDU + Grüne + SPD86 of 130
- CDU + Grüne + AfD86 of 130
- CDU + SPD + AfD85 of 130
- CDU + Grüne + Linke82 of 130
- CDU + SPD + Linke81 of 130
- CDU + AfD + Linke81 of 130
- Grüne + SPD + AfD73 of 130
- Grüne + SPD + Linke69 of 130
- Grüne + AfD + Linke69 of 130
- SPD + AfD + Linke68 of 130
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.