Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 31 July 2021 for the Berlin state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 24 to 31 Jul 2021
- Respondents
- 2,420
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- SPD24.0%+3.0
- CDU18.0%-2.0
- Grüne15.5%-0.5
- Linke15.0%+1.0
- FDP9.0%-1.5
- AfD9.0%±0
- Others9.5%+3.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 7 Jul 2021.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD ahead on 24.0%, followed by CDU on 18.0%. 2,420 people were surveyed from 24 to 31 Jul 2021, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 7 Jul 2021, SPD gains 3.0 points, CDU loses 2.0 points, FDP loses 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 6.5 points higher and Grüne 6.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Jul 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +6.5average 17.5
- Grüne -6.5average 22.0
- Linke +2.5average 12.5
- AfD -2.0average 11.0
- CDU -1.5average 19.5
- FDP -0.5average 9.5
Seat projection from this poll
130 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- SPD34
- CDU26
- Grüne22
- Linke22
- FDP13
- AfD13
- SPD + CDU + Grüne82 of 130
- SPD + CDU + Linke82 of 130
- SPD + Grüne + Linke78 of 130
- SPD + CDU + FDP73 of 130
- SPD + CDU + AfD73 of 130
- CDU + Grüne + Linke70 of 130
- SPD + Grüne + FDP69 of 130
- SPD + Grüne + AfD69 of 130
- SPD + Linke + FDP69 of 130
- SPD + Linke + AfD69 of 130
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.