Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 30 September 2022 for the Hesse state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
25 to 29 Sep 2022
Respondents
1,400
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU30.5%+1.0
  • Grüne21.0%-5.0
  • SPD15.0%-0.5
  • AfD14.5%+5.5
  • FDP7.0%±0
  • Linke4.0%+0.5
  • Freie Wähler3.0%-0.5
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 31 Aug 2022.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 30.5%, followed by Grüne on 21.0%. 1,400 people were surveyed from 25 to 29 Sep 2022, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 31 Aug 2022, AfD gains 5.5 points, Grüne loses 5.0 points, CDU gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 9.0 points lower and AfD 6.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Sep 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -9.0average 24.0
  • AfD +6.0average 8.5
  • CDU +5.0average 25.5
  • Grüne +1.5average 19.5
  • FDP -1.5average 8.5
  • Linke -1.0average 5.0
  • Freie Wähler ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

110 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 38 seatsGrüne: 26 seatsSPD: 19 seatsAfD: 18 seatsFDP: 9 seatsMajority from 56110of 110 seats
  • CDU38
  • Grüne26
  • SPD19
  • AfD18
  • FDP9
  • CDU + Grüne64 of 110
  • CDU + SPD57 of 110
  • CDU + AfD56 of 110
  • Grüne + SPD + AfD63 of 110
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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