Pollster and election
Infratest dimap on the Bavarian state election
20 polls since 10 January 2018, the latest from 14 January 2026 for Bayerischer Rundfunk. Against the current average of all pollsters, Infratest dimap has Freie Wähler -3.0 and SPD +2.0.
- CSU39.0%-1.0
- AfD19.0%+4.0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- Freie Wähler9.0%-4.0
- SPD8.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%
- Others9.0%±0
39.0%
-1.0
CSU
19.0%
+4.0
AfD
13.0%
±0
Grüne
9.0%
-4.0
Freie Wähler
8.0%
+1.0
SPD
3.0%
Linke
9.0%
±0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Infratest dimap poll of 17 Jan 2024.
Trend
All Infratest dimap figures for the Bavaria state election
Accuracy
Infratest dimap before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 8 Oct 2023 (poll 28 Sep 2023)0.7 ptsbiggest miss FDP +1.0
- Election 14 Oct 2018 (poll 4 Oct 2018)1.3 ptsbiggest miss CSU -4.2
Archive
All 20 polls
| Pollster | Published | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 14 Jan 2026 | 39 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| Infratest dimap | 17 Jan 2024 | 40 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 7 | – | 9 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Sep 2023 | 36 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 9 | – | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 12 Sep 2023 | 36 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 9 | – | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 16 May 2023 | 39 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 11 | – | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 11 Jan 2023 | 38 | 13 | 18 | 10 | 9 | – | 8 |
| Infratest dimap | 13 Oct 2022 | 37 | 12 | 18 | 11 | 10 | – | 9 |
| Infratest dimap | 19 Jan 2022 | 36 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 14 | – | 9 |
| Infratest dimap | 13 Jan 2021 | 48 | 7 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 7 Oct 2020 | 45 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 22 Jul 2020 | 49 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 27 May 2020 | 48 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 8 Apr 2020 | 49 | 6 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 15 Jan 2020 | 36 | 10 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 9 Jan 2019 | 35 | 8 | 21 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 4 Oct 2018 | 33 | 10 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 12 Sep 2018 | 35 | 11 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 18 Jul 2018 | 38 | 12 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 2 May 2018 | 41 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 10 Jan 2018 | 40 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 5 |