Pollster and election
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on the European election
12 polls since 22 February 2019, the latest from 6 June 2024 for ZDF-Politbarometer. Against the current average of all pollsters, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has AfD -1.5 and SPD -0.6. House effect since 9 Jun 2022: AfD -1.4, BSW -0.8, Grüne +0.7.
- CDU/CSU30.0%±0
- SPD14.0%±0
- Grüne14.0%-1.0
- AfD14.0%±0
- BSW7.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke3.0%-1.0
- Volt3.0%
- Others11.0%-2.0
30.0%
±0
CDU/CSU
14.0%
±0
SPD
14.0%
-1.0
Grüne
14.0%
±0
AfD
7.0%
+1.0
BSW
4.0%
±0
FDP
3.0%
-1.0
Linke
3.0%
Volt
11.0%
-2.0
Others
Change compared with the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 30 May 2024.
Trend
All Forschungsgruppe Wahlen figures for the European election
Accuracy
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 9 Jun 2024 (poll 6 Jun 2024)0.9 ptsbiggest miss Grüne +2.1
- Election 26 May 2019 (poll 23 May 2019)1.1 ptsbiggest miss Grüne -2.0
Archive
All 12 polls
| Pollster | Published | CDU/CSU | SPD | Grüne | AfD | BSW | FDP | Linke | Volt | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 Jun 2024 | 30 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 30 May 2024 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | – | 13 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 May 2024 | 31 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 3 | – | 13 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 26 Apr 2024 | 30 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 3 | – | 13 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 12 Apr 2024 | 30 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 3 | – | 12 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 23 May 2019 | 28 | 17.5 | 18.5 | 12 | – | 5.5 | 6.5 | – | 12 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 May 2019 | 30 | 17 | 19 | 12 | – | 5 | 7 | – | 10 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 10 May 2019 | 32 | 16 | 19 | 12 | – | 6 | 6 | – | 9 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 12 Apr 2019 | 32 | 18 | 19 | 10 | – | 7 | 6 | – | 8 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 28 Mar 2019 | 33 | 18 | 18 | 10 | – | 7 | 6 | – | 8 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 15 Mar 2019 | 35 | 18 | 18 | 9 | – | 7 | 6 | – | 7 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 22 Feb 2019 | 33 | 18 | 19 | 10 | – | 6 | 8 | – | 6 |