Pollster and election
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on the Saxony state election
5 polls since 23 August 2019, the latest from 29 August 2024 for ZDF-Politbarometer. Against the current average of all pollsters, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU +12.0 and AfD -12.0. House effect since 21 May 2024: BSW -3.0, CDU +2.2, AfD -0.7.
- CDU33.0%±0
- AfD30.0%±0
- BSW12.0%+1.0
- SPD6.0%-1.0
- Grüne6.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Others9.0%±0
33.0%
±0
CDU
30.0%
±0
AfD
12.0%
+1.0
BSW
6.0%
-1.0
SPD
6.0%
±0
Grüne
4.0%
±0
Linke
9.0%
±0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 23 Aug 2024.
Trend
All Forschungsgruppe Wahlen figures for the Saxony state election
Accuracy
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 1 Sep 2024 (poll 29 Aug 2024)0.8 ptsbiggest miss SPD -1.3
- Election 1 Sep 2019 (poll 29 Aug 2019)1.7 ptsbiggest miss Linke +3.6
Archive
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Published | CDU | AfD | BSW | SPD | Grüne | Linke | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Aug 2024 | 33 | 30 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 23 Aug 2024 | 33 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 9 Aug 2024 | 34 | 30 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Aug 2019 | 32 | 24.5 | – | 8.5 | 11 | 14 | 5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 23 Aug 2019 | 31 | 25 | – | 9 | 10 | 14 | 3 |