Pollster and election
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on the Hamburg state election
4 polls since 14 February 2020, the latest from 27 February 2025 for ZDF-Politbarometer. Against the current average of all pollsters, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has SPD +2.5 and AfD -2.0.
- SPD33.0%+1.0
- CDU18.0%±0
- Grüne17.0%-2.0
- Linke12.0%+3.0
- AfD9.0%±0
- Volt3.0%±0
- Others8.0%+4.0
33.0%
+1.0
SPD
18.0%
±0
CDU
17.0%
-2.0
Grüne
12.0%
+3.0
Linke
9.0%
±0
AfD
3.0%
±0
Volt
8.0%
+4.0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 14 Feb 2025.
Trend
All Forschungsgruppe Wahlen figures for the Hamburg state election
Accuracy
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 2 Mar 2025 (poll 27 Feb 2025)1.1 ptsbiggest miss CDU -1.8
- Election 23 Feb 2020 (poll 20 Feb 2020)0.4 ptsbiggest miss CDU +0.8
Archive
All 4 polls
| Pollster | Published | SPD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | AfD | Volt | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 27 Feb 2025 | 33 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 8 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 14 Feb 2025 | 32 | 18 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 4 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 20 Feb 2020 | 39 | 12 | 24 | 8.5 | 6 | – | 5.5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 14 Feb 2020 | 37 | 13 | 25 | 8 | 7 | – | 5.5 |