Pollster and election
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on the Bavarian state election
6 polls since 21 September 2018, the latest from 5 October 2023 for ZDF-Politbarometer. Against the current average of all pollsters, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has AfD -6.0 and Grüne +3.0.
- CSU37.0%+1.0
- Grüne16.0%±0
- Freie Wähler15.0%±0
- AfD14.0%±0
- SPD9.0%±0
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Others6.0%±0
37.0%
+1.0
CSU
16.0%
±0
Grüne
15.0%
±0
Freie Wähler
14.0%
±0
AfD
9.0%
±0
SPD
3.0%
-1.0
FDP
6.0%
±0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 29 Sep 2023.
Trend
All Forschungsgruppe Wahlen figures for the Bavaria state election
Accuracy
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 8 Oct 2023 (poll 5 Oct 2023)0.6 ptsbiggest miss Grüne +1.6
- Election 14 Oct 2018 (poll 11 Oct 2018)1.4 ptsbiggest miss CSU -3.2
Archive
All 6 polls
| Pollster | Published | CSU | Grüne | Freie Wähler | AfD | SPD | FDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Oct 2023 | 37 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Sep 2023 | 36 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 8 Sep 2023 | 36 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 11 Oct 2018 | 34 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Oct 2018 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 5.5 | 5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 21 Sep 2018 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 4 |