Rhineland-Palatinate state election 2021: the result
In the Rhineland-Palatinate state election on 14 March 2021, SPD became the largest party with 35.7%, 8 points ahead of CDU (27.7%).
- Failed to clear the thresholdLinke (2.5%), Tierschutzpartei (1.7%), Die PARTEI (1.1%), Volt (1.0%), Piraten (0.5%)
- Polls one week beforeoff by 1.7 points per party on average, SPD underestimated by 3.9
- Statusofficial final result
Result of the 2021 state election
Shares in percent. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
- SPD35.7%
- CDU27.7%
- Grüne9.3%
- AfD8.3%
- FDP5.5%
- Freie Wähler5.4%
- Linke2.5%
- Tierschutzpartei1.7%
- Die PARTEI1.1%
- Volt1.0%
- Piraten0.5%
- Others1.3%
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%.
| Party | 2021 | Seats (projected) |
|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 35.7% | 39 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union | 27.7% | 31 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 9.3% | 10 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 8.3% | 9 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 5.5% | 6 |
| Freie Wähler | 5.4% | 6 |
| Die Linke | 2.5% | – |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz | 1.7% | – |
| Die PARTEI | 1.1% | – |
| Volt Deutschland | 1.0% | – |
| Piratenpartei | 0.5% | – |
| Others | 1.3% | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Seats projected by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers on 101 regular seats, without overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate after the 2021 result
101 regular seats by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers. Electoral threshold of 5%. The actual size of the parliament may differ due to overhang and compensatory seats.
- SPD39
- CDU31
- Grüne10
- AfD9
- FDP6
- Freie Wähler6
Which alliances had a majority after the 2021 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority.
- SPD + CDU70 of 101
- SPD + Grüne + AfD58 of 101
- SPD + Grüne + FDP55 of 101
- SPD + Grüne + Freie Wähler55 of 101
- SPD + AfD + FDP54 of 101
- SPD + AfD + Freie Wähler54 of 101
- SPD + FDP + Freie Wähler51 of 101
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2021 state election
9 polls between 23 Feb 2021 and 12 Mar 2021, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | CDU | Grüne | AfD | FDP | Freie Wähler | Linke | Tierschutzpartei |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 12 Mar 2021 | 32 | 29 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | – |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 11 Mar 2021 | 33 | 29 | 10 | 9 | 6.5 | 5 | 3 | – |
| Civey | 10 Mar 2021 | 31 | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | – | 2 | – |
| INSA | 9 Mar 2021 | 30 | 30 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | – |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 7 Mar 2021 | 33 | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2.5 | – |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Mar 2021 | 33 | 29 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | – |
| Infratest dimap | 4 Mar 2021 | 30 | 28 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 3 | – |
| Infratest dimap | 25 Feb 2021 | 30 | 31 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | – |
| INSA | 23 Feb 2021 | 31 | 33 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 3 | – |
Who came closest before the 2021 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | SPD | CDU | Grüne | AfD | FDP | Freie Wähler | Linke | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 14 Mar 2021 | 35.7% | 27.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 11 Mar 2021 (3 days before) | -2.7 | +1.3 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +1.0 | -0.4 | +0.5 | 1.0 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 7 Mar 2021 (7 days before) | -2.7 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +1.7 | +2.5 | -0.4 | ±0 | 1.2 |
| INSA | 12 Mar 2021 (2 days before) | -3.7 | +1.3 | +0.7 | +1.7 | +1.5 | -1.4 | +0.5 | 1.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 4 Mar 2021 (10 days before) | -5.7 | +0.3 | +2.7 | +0.7 | +3.5 | -0.4 | +0.5 | 2.0 |
| Civey | 10 Mar 2021 (4 days before) | -4.7 | +2.3 | +3.7 | +0.7 | +2.5 | – | -0.5 | 2.4 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.