Pollster and election
Trend Research Hamburg on the Hamburg state election
7 polls since 17 September 2019, the latest from 27 January 2025 for Radio Hamburg / Die ZEIT. Against the current average of all pollsters, Trend Research Hamburg has Linke -7.0 and SPD +3.5.
- SPD34.0%+2.0
- Grüne20.0%±0
- CDU16.0%-1.0
- AfD11.0%+1.0
- Linke6.0%-1.0
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Volt3.0%±0
- BSW3.0%-1.0
- Others4.0%±0
34.0%
+2.0
SPD
20.0%
±0
Grüne
16.0%
-1.0
CDU
11.0%
+1.0
AfD
6.0%
-1.0
Linke
3.0%
-1.0
FDP
3.0%
±0
Volt
3.0%
-1.0
BSW
4.0%
±0
Others
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the Trend Research Hamburg poll of 16 Dec 2024.
Trend
All Trend Research Hamburg figures for the Hamburg state election
Accuracy
Trend Research Hamburg before the last elections
Deviation of the final poll before the election from the official result, mean absolute deviation per party.
- Election 23 Feb 2020 (poll 10 Feb 2020)2.3 ptsbiggest miss SPD -6.2
Archive
All 7 polls
| Pollster | Published | SPD | Grüne | CDU | AfD | Linke | FDP | Volt | BSW | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Research Hamburg | 27 Jan 2025 | 34 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 16 Dec 2024 | 32 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 1 Nov 2023 | 31 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 4 | – | – | 4 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 10 Feb 2020 | 33 | 24 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 7 | – | – | 5 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 9 Jan 2020 | 32 | 23 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 8 | – | – | 4 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 18 Nov 2019 | 32 | 23 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 7 | – | – | 4 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 17 Sep 2019 | 28 | 28 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 6 | – | – | 4 |