Single poll

YouGov poll of 19 September 2018 for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election

Commissioned by
SAT.1 NRW
Fieldwork period
6 to 12 Sep 2018
Respondents
1,049
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU31.0%-4.0
  • SPD24.0%-6.0
  • AfD13.0%+4.0
  • FDP10.0%+1.0
  • Grüne10.0%+4.0
  • Linke7.0%-1.0
  • Others5.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 12 Sep 2017.

In this poll YouGov has CDU ahead on 31.0%, followed by SPD on 24.0%. 1,049 people were surveyed from 6 to 12 Sep 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by SAT.1 NRW.

Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 12 Sep 2017, SPD loses 6.0 points, CDU loses 4.0 points, AfD gains 4.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has AfD 3.4 points higher and CDU 3.2 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Sep 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +3.4average 9.6
  • CDU -3.2average 34.2
  • FDP -0.6average 10.6
  • SPD +0.5average 23.5
  • Grüne -0.5average 10.5
  • Linke -0.1average 7.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

181 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 59 seatsSPD: 46 seatsAfD: 25 seatsFDP: 19 seatsGrüne: 19 seatsLinke: 13 seatsMajority from 91181of 181 seats
  • CDU59
  • SPD46
  • AfD25
  • FDP19
  • Grüne19
  • Linke13
  • CDU + SPD105 of 181
  • CDU + AfD + FDP103 of 181
  • CDU + AfD + Grüne103 of 181
  • CDU + AfD + Linke97 of 181
  • CDU + FDP + Grüne97 of 181
  • CDU + FDP + Linke91 of 181
  • CDU + Grüne + Linke91 of 181
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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