Forsa poll of 7 January 2019 for the Hamburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Hamburger Abendblatt
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Dec 2018 to 3 Jan 2019
- Respondents
- 1,004
- Method
- Telefonisch
- SPD30.0%-6.0
- Grüne24.0%+6.0
- CDU14.0%-2.0
- Linke11.0%-1.0
- FDP9.0%+2.0
- AfD7.0%±0
- Others5.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 16 Apr 2018.
In this poll Forsa has SPD ahead on 30.0%, followed by Grüne on 24.0%. 1,004 people were surveyed from 27 Dec 2018 to 3 Jan 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by Hamburger Abendblatt.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 16 Apr 2018, SPD loses 6.0 points, Grüne gains 6.0 points, CDU loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has Grüne 9.0 points higher and CDU 8.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +9.0average 15.0
- CDU -8.0average 22.0
- Linke -3.0average 14.0
- AfD -3.0average 10.0
- SPD +2.0average 28.0
- FDP +1.0average 8.0
Seat projection from this poll
121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- SPD38
- Grüne31
- CDU18
- Linke14
- FDP11
- AfD9
- SPD + Grüne69 of 121
- SPD + CDU + Linke70 of 121
- SPD + CDU + FDP67 of 121
- SPD + CDU + AfD65 of 121
- SPD + Linke + FDP63 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + Linke63 of 121
- SPD + Linke + AfD61 of 121
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.