Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 February 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 20 to 21 Feb 2025
- Respondents
- 1,536
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.5%-0.5
- AfD20.5%+0.5
- SPD14.5%±0
- Grüne12.0%±0
- Linke8.0%+1.0
- FDP4.5%+0.5
- BSW4.5%-0.5
- Freie Wähler2.0%±0
- Others4.5%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 18 Feb 2025.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.5%, followed by AfD on 20.5%. 1,536 people were surveyed from 20 to 21 Feb 2025, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 18 Feb 2025, Linke gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Grüne 1.5 points lower and Linke 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Feb 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.5average 13.5
- Linke +1.5average 6.5
- SPD -0.9average 15.4
- CDU/CSU -0.7average 30.2
- Freie Wähler +0.3average 1.7
- AfD +0.2average 20.3
- FDP +0.1average 4.4
- BSW ±0average 4.5
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU220
- AfD153
- SPD108
- Grüne89
- Linke60
- CDU/CSU + AfD373 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD328 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke369 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne350 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke321 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.