Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 30 April 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
27 to 30 Apr 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU26.0%-3.5
  • AfD24.5%+4.0
  • SPD16.5%+2.0
  • Grüne12.0%±0
  • Linke10.5%+2.5
  • FDP4.0%-0.5
  • BSW3.5%-1.0
  • Others3.0%-1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 Feb 2025.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 24.5%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 27 to 30 Apr 2025, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 Feb 2025, AfD gains 4.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 3.5 points, Linke gains 2.5 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Apr 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +1.3average 15.2
  • BSW -0.6average 4.1
  • Linke +0.5average 10.0
  • CDU/CSU +0.4average 25.6
  • Grüne +0.4average 11.6
  • FDP +0.4average 3.6
  • AfD -0.2average 24.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 183 seatsAfD: 173 seatsSPD: 116 seatsGrüne: 84 seatsLinke: 74 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU183
  • AfD173
  • SPD116
  • Grüne84
  • Linke74
  • CDU/CSU + AfD356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne383 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke373 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne373 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke363 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke341 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke331 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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