Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 18 February 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
17 to 18 Feb 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%-2.0
  • AfD20.0%±0
  • SPD14.5%+2.0
  • Grüne12.0%-0.5
  • Linke7.0%+1.0
  • BSW5.0%+0.5
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler2.0%+0.5
  • Others5.5%-1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 13 Feb 2025.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 17 to 18 Feb 2025, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 13 Feb 2025, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, SPD gains 2.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Grüne 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Feb 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.5average 13.5
  • SPD -1.1average 15.6
  • Linke +1.0average 6.0
  • AfD -0.4average 20.4
  • BSW +0.4average 4.6
  • CDU/CSU +0.2average 29.8
  • FDP -0.2average 4.2
  • Freie Wähler ±0average 2.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 214 seatsAfD: 142 seatsSPD: 103 seatsGrüne: 85 seatsLinke: 50 seatsBSW: 36 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU214
  • AfD142
  • SPD103
  • Grüne85
  • Linke50
  • BSW36
  • CDU/CSU + AfD356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD317 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke349 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW335 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne330 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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