Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 3 February 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 3 Feb 2025
- Respondents
- 1,900
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU28.0%-0.5
- AfD19.5%-2.0
- SPD16.5%-0.5
- Grüne12.0%-2.0
- BSW5.5%+1.0
- Linke5.0%+1.5
- FDP4.5%+1.0
- Freie Wähler2.5%+1.0
- Others6.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 Jan 2025.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by AfD on 19.5%. 1,900 people were surveyed from 1 to 3 Feb 2025, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 Jan 2025, AfD loses 2.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points, Linke gains 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU 2.6 points lower and Grüne 1.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Feb 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.6average 30.6
- Grüne -1.7average 13.7
- AfD -0.8average 20.3
- SPD +0.8average 15.7
- BSW +0.8average 4.7
- Linke +0.7average 4.3
- FDP +0.6average 3.9
- Freie Wähler +0.5average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU204
- AfD142
- SPD120
- Grüne88
- BSW40
- Linke36
- CDU/CSU + AfD346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD324 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke328 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.