Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 January 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 21 to 23 Jan 2025
- Respondents
- 1,500
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU28.5%-0.5
- AfD21.5%+0.5
- SPD17.0%+0.5
- Grüne14.0%-1.0
- BSW4.5%+0.5
- FDP3.5%-0.5
- Linke3.5%+1.0
- Freie Wähler1.5%-0.5
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 18 Jan 2025.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.5%, followed by AfD on 21.5%. 1,500 people were surveyed from 21 to 23 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 18 Jan 2025, Grüne loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU 2.3 points lower and AfD 2.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 25 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.3average 30.8
- AfD +2.0average 19.5
- SPD +0.7average 16.3
- BSW -0.6average 5.1
- FDP -0.6average 4.1
- Freie Wähler -0.5average 2.0
- Grüne +0.4average 13.6
- Linke -0.1average 3.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU222
- AfD167
- SPD132
- Grüne109
- CDU/CSU + AfD389 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne331 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne408 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.