Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 18 January 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 13 to 16 Jan 2025
- Respondents
- 2,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%+1.0
- AfD21.0%+3.0
- SPD16.5%-1.5
- Grüne15.0%-0.5
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW4.0%-2.0
- Linke2.5%±0
- Freie Wähler2.0%±0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 29 Dec 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 13 to 16 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 29 Dec 2024, AfD gains 3.0 points, BSW loses 2.0 points, SPD loses 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU 2.2 points lower and Grüne 1.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.2average 31.2
- Grüne +1.6average 13.4
- AfD +1.4average 19.6
- BSW -1.3average 5.3
- Linke -1.0average 3.5
- SPD +0.5average 16.0
- Freie Wähler +0.3average 1.7
- FDP -0.1average 4.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU224
- AfD162
- SPD128
- Grüne116
- CDU/CSU + AfD386 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD352 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne340 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne406 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.