Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 29 December 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 21 to 28 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 2,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU28.0%-1.0
- SPD18.0%-2.0
- AfD18.0%+1.0
- Grüne15.5%+0.5
- BSW6.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%-0.5
- Linke2.5%±0
- Freie Wähler2.0%-1.0
- Others6.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 Dec 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by SPD on 18.0%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 21 to 28 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 Dec 2024, SPD loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU 4.1 points lower and Grüne 2.4 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 29 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -4.1average 32.1
- Grüne +2.4average 13.1
- SPD +2.0average 16.0
- Linke -0.8average 3.3
- AfD -0.6average 18.6
- FDP +0.4average 3.6
- BSW +0.2average 5.8
- Freie Wähler ±0average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU206
- SPD133
- AfD133
- Grüne114
- BSW44
- CDU/CSU + SPD339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne320 of 630
- SPD + AfD + Grüne380 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.