Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 December 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 16 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 1,500
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%-2.0
- SPD20.0%+1.5
- AfD17.0%-3.5
- Grüne15.0%+3.5
- BSW5.0%+1.5
- FDP4.5%+1.5
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Linke2.5%-0.5
- Others4.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 Dec 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by SPD on 20.0%. 1,500 people were surveyed from 14 to 16 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 Dec 2024, AfD loses 3.5 points, Grüne gains 3.5 points, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 4.1 points higher and CDU/CSU 3.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +4.1average 15.9
- CDU/CSU -3.5average 32.5
- Grüne +2.3average 12.7
- BSW -1.2average 6.2
- Freie Wähler +1.0average 2.0
- AfD -0.9average 17.9
- FDP +0.5average 4.0
- Linke -0.4average 2.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU212
- SPD146
- AfD125
- Grüne110
- BSW37
- CDU/CSU + SPD358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD337 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne322 of 630
- SPD + AfD + Grüne381 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.