Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 December 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 5 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 2,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%-3.0
- AfD20.5%+2.0
- SPD18.5%+3.5
- Grüne11.5%+0.5
- BSW3.5%-1.5
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Linke3.0%+0.5
- Freie Wähler3.0%+0.5
- Others6.0%-1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 22 Nov 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 20.5%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 2 to 5 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 22 Nov 2024, SPD gains 3.5 points, CDU/CSU loses 3.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 2.7 points higher and SPD 2.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 6 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.7average 17.8
- SPD +2.7average 15.8
- BSW -2.6average 6.1
- CDU/CSU -1.6average 32.6
- Grüne -1.3average 12.8
- Freie Wähler +1.0average 2.0
- FDP -0.8average 3.8
- Linke -0.2average 3.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU240
- AfD158
- SPD143
- Grüne89
- CDU/CSU + AfD398 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD383 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne329 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne390 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.