Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 22 November 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 20 Nov 2024
- Respondents
- 2,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU34.0%+3.0
- AfD18.5%+3.5
- SPD15.0%-1.5
- Grüne11.0%-2.5
- BSW5.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%-2.0
- Linke2.5%-0.5
- Freie Wähler2.5%
- Others7.5%-1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 20 May 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 34.0%, followed by AfD on 18.5%. 2,000 people were surveyed from 14 to 20 Nov 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 20 May 2024, AfD gains 3.5 points, CDU/CSU gains 3.0 points, Grüne loses 2.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has BSW 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 22 Nov 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW -1.8average 6.8
- CDU/CSU +1.1average 32.9
- Linke -0.9average 3.4
- Grüne -0.6average 11.6
- AfD +0.5average 18.0
- SPD -0.3average 15.3
- Freie Wähler +0.2average 2.3
- FDP -0.1average 4.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU256
- AfD140
- SPD113
- Grüne83
- BSW38
- CDU/CSU + AfD396 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD369 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne339 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne336 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.