Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 20 May 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 13 to 19 May 2024
- Respondents
- 2,500
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%+2.0
- SPD16.5%-3.0
- AfD15.0%±0
- Grüne13.5%-0.5
- FDP6.0%+2.0
- BSW6.0%-0.5
- Linke3.0%-0.5
- Others9.0%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 Mar 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by SPD on 16.5%. 2,500 people were surveyed from 13 to 19 May 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 Mar 2024, SPD loses 3.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, FDP gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 2.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 20 May 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -2.0average 17.0
- FDP +1.1average 4.9
- SPD +0.8average 15.7
- CDU/CSU +0.4average 30.6
- Linke -0.3average 3.3
- Grüne -0.2average 13.7
- BSW ±0average 6.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU222
- SPD118
- AfD107
- Grüne97
- FDP43
- BSW43
- CDU/CSU + SPD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne319 of 630
- SPD + AfD + Grüne322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.