Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 March 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 18 to 20 Mar 2024
- Respondents
- 1,300
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%+0.5
- SPD19.5%+5.5
- AfD15.0%-4.0
- Grüne14.0%+1.5
- BSW6.5%-2.0
- FDP4.0%-1.5
- Linke3.5%+1.5
- Others8.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 22 Feb 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by SPD on 19.5%. 1,300 people were surveyed from 18 to 20 Mar 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 22 Feb 2024, SPD gains 5.5 points, AfD loses 4.0 points, BSW loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 3.9 points higher and AfD 3.1 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +3.9average 15.6
- AfD -3.1average 18.1
- CDU/CSU -1.4average 30.4
- BSW +0.7average 5.8
- FDP -0.6average 4.6
- Linke +0.4average 3.1
- Grüne +0.2average 13.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU218
- SPD146
- AfD112
- Grüne105
- BSW49
- CDU/CSU + SPD364 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD330 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne323 of 630
- SPD + AfD + Grüne363 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.