Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 22 February 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 21 to 22 Feb 2024
- Respondents
- 1,300
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU28.5%+1.0
- AfD19.0%±0
- SPD14.0%-1.5
- Grüne12.5%±0
- BSW8.5%-0.5
- FDP5.5%-1.0
- Linke2.0%-0.5
- Freie Wähler2.0%±0
- Others8.0%+2.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 26 Jan 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.5%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,300 people were surveyed from 21 to 22 Feb 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 26 Jan 2024, SPD loses 1.5 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has BSW 2.3 points higher and CDU/CSU 2.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 22 Feb 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +2.3average 6.2
- CDU/CSU -2.0average 30.5
- Linke -1.3average 3.3
- SPD -1.2average 15.2
- FDP +1.0average 4.5
- Grüne -0.9average 13.4
- Freie Wähler -0.8average 2.8
- AfD ±0average 19.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU204
- AfD136
- SPD100
- Grüne90
- BSW61
- FDP39
- CDU/CSU + AfD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne394 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW365 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP343 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP333 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne326 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.