Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 26 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 22 to 24 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,366
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU27.5%-6.5
- AfD19.0%-5.5
- SPD15.5%+3.5
- Grüne12.5%+2.0
- BSW9.0%
- FDP6.5%+2.0
- Linke2.5%-0.5
- Freie Wähler2.0%-2.0
- Others5.5%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Jan 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.5%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,366 people were surveyed from 22 to 24 Jan 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 Jan 2024, CDU/CSU loses 6.5 points, AfD loses 5.5 points, SPD gains 3.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU 3.5 points lower and BSW 3.2 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 26 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -3.5average 31.0
- BSW +3.2average 5.8
- AfD -2.8average 21.8
- Linke -1.5average 4.0
- FDP +1.4average 5.1
- SPD +1.2average 14.3
- Freie Wähler -0.9average 2.9
- Grüne -0.8average 13.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU193
- AfD133
- SPD109
- Grüne87
- BSW63
- FDP45
- CDU/CSU + AfD326 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne389 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW365 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW343 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP325 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.