Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 4 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,500
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU34.0%+3.0
- AfD24.5%-1.5
- SPD12.0%-3.0
- Grüne10.5%-2.5
- FDP4.5%-0.5
- Freie Wähler4.0%
- Linke3.0%-0.5
- Others7.5%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 28 Nov 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 34.0%, followed by AfD on 24.5%. 1,500 people were surveyed from 2 to 4 Jan 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 28 Nov 2023, CDU/CSU gains 3.0 points, SPD loses 3.0 points, Grüne loses 2.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Grüne 3.2 points lower and AfD 2.8 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -3.2average 13.7
- AfD +2.8average 21.7
- SPD -2.8average 14.8
- CDU/CSU +2.6average 31.4
- Freie Wähler +1.1average 2.9
- Linke -0.8average 3.8
- FDP -0.7average 5.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU264
- AfD191
- SPD93
- Grüne82
- CDU/CSU + AfD455 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne346 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne366 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.