Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 28 November 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 25 to 27 Nov 2023
- Respondents
- 1,200
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
- AfD26.0%+4.0
- SPD15.0%+0.5
- Grüne13.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%-1.0
- Linke3.5%-0.5
- Others6.5%-3.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 Oct 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 26.0%. 1,200 people were surveyed from 25 to 27 Nov 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 Oct 2023, AfD gains 4.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 5.1 points higher and Grüne 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Nov 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +5.1average 20.9
- Grüne -1.8average 14.8
- CDU/CSU +1.1average 29.9
- Linke -0.7average 4.2
- SPD -0.6average 15.6
- FDP -0.4average 5.4
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU217
- AfD182
- SPD105
- Grüne91
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD399 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD322 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne378 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP343 of 630
- AfD + SPD + FDP322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.