Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 28 November 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
25 to 27 Nov 2023
Respondents
1,200
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
  • AfD26.0%+4.0
  • SPD15.0%+0.5
  • Grüne13.0%-1.0
  • FDP5.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.5%-0.5
  • Others6.5%-3.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 Oct 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 26.0%. 1,200 people were surveyed from 25 to 27 Nov 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 Oct 2023, AfD gains 4.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 5.1 points higher and Grüne 1.8 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Nov 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +5.1average 20.9
  • Grüne -1.8average 14.8
  • CDU/CSU +1.1average 29.9
  • Linke -0.7average 4.2
  • SPD -0.6average 15.6
  • FDP -0.4average 5.4
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 217 seatsAfD: 182 seatsSPD: 105 seatsGrüne: 91 seatsFDP: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU217
  • AfD182
  • SPD105
  • Grüne91
  • FDP35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD399 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD322 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP343 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + FDP322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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