Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 October 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 23 to 25 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,300
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%+6.0
- AfD22.0%-1.0
- SPD14.5%-4.0
- Grüne14.0%-1.0
- FDP6.0%-0.5
- Linke4.0%+0.5
- Others9.5%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 Sep 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,300 people were surveyed from 23 to 25 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 Sep 2023, CDU/CSU gains 6.0 points, SPD loses 4.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 25 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.2average 15.7
- CDU/CSU +0.9average 29.1
- Linke -0.7average 4.7
- AfD +0.6average 21.4
- FDP +0.4average 5.6
- Grüne -0.1average 14.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU218
- AfD160
- SPD106
- Grüne102
- FDP44
- CDU/CSU + AfD378 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD324 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne320 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne368 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.