Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 September 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 24 to 25 Sep 2023
- Respondents
- 1,200
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU24.0%-1.0
- AfD23.0%+1.0
- SPD18.5%-2.0
- Grüne15.0%+2.0
- FDP6.5%-1.0
- Linke3.5%-0.5
- Others9.5%+1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 Aug 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 24.0%, followed by AfD on 23.0%. 1,200 people were surveyed from 24 to 25 Sep 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 Aug 2023, SPD loses 2.0 points, Grüne gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU 3.3 points lower and SPD 1.8 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 25 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -3.3average 27.3
- SPD +1.8average 16.7
- AfD +1.3average 21.7
- Linke -1.3average 4.8
- Grüne +0.4average 14.6
- FDP +0.1average 6.4
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU174
- AfD166
- SPD134
- Grüne109
- FDP47
- CDU/CSU + AfD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne417 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne409 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP355 of 630
- AfD + SPD + FDP347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP330 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + FDP322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.