Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 August 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
22 to 27 Aug 2023
Respondents
1,200
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU25.0%±0
  • AfD22.0%+1.5
  • SPD20.5%±0
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • FDP7.5%+0.5
  • Linke4.0%-0.5
  • Others8.0%-1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 28 Jul 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,200 people were surveyed from 22 to 27 Aug 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 28 Jul 2023, AfD gains 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 2.5 points higher and CDU/CSU 1.7 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Aug 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +2.5average 18.0
  • CDU/CSU -1.7average 26.7
  • AfD +1.4average 20.6
  • Grüne -1.3average 14.3
  • Linke -0.8average 4.8
  • FDP +0.5average 7.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 179 seatsAfD: 157 seatsSPD: 147 seatsGrüne: 93 seatsFDP: 54 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU179
  • AfD157
  • SPD147
  • Grüne93
  • FDP54
  • CDU/CSU + AfD336 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD326 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne397 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + FDP358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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