Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 28 July 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
26 to 27 Jul 2023
Respondents
1,525
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU25.0%+1.0
  • SPD20.5%-0.5
  • AfD20.5%-0.5
  • Grüne13.0%-1.5
  • FDP7.0%+1.0
  • Linke4.5%±0
  • Others9.5%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 26 Jun 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.0%, followed by SPD on 20.5%. 1,525 people were surveyed from 26 to 27 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 26 Jun 2023, Grüne loses 1.5 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 2.4 points higher and CDU/CSU 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +2.4average 18.1
  • CDU/CSU -2.0average 27.0
  • Grüne -1.7average 14.7
  • AfD +0.3average 20.2
  • Linke -0.2average 4.7
  • FDP +0.1average 6.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 184 seatsSPD: 150 seatsAfD: 150 seatsGrüne: 95 seatsFDP: 51 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU184
  • SPD150
  • AfD150
  • Grüne95
  • FDP51
  • CDU/CSU + SPD334 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD334 of 630
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne395 of 630
  • SPD + AfD + FDP351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP330 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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