Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 30 April 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
26 to 30 Apr 2023
Respondents
1,400
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU27.5%+1.0
  • SPD21.0%-2.0
  • AfD15.0%+1.5
  • Grüne14.0%-1.0
  • FDP10.5%+3.0
  • Linke3.5%-0.5
  • Others8.5%-2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 Mar 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.5%, followed by SPD on 21.0%. 1,400 people were surveyed from 26 to 30 Apr 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 Mar 2023, FDP gains 3.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has FDP 3.6 points higher and CDU/CSU 2.2 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Apr 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • FDP +3.6average 6.9
  • CDU/CSU -2.2average 29.7
  • Grüne -2.1average 16.1
  • SPD +1.7average 19.3
  • Linke -1.1average 4.6
  • AfD -0.6average 15.6
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 197 seatsSPD: 151 seatsAfD: 107 seatsGrüne: 100 seatsFDP: 75 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU197
  • SPD151
  • AfD107
  • Grüne100
  • FDP75
  • CDU/CSU + SPD348 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne404 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP379 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP372 of 630
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne358 of 630
  • SPD + AfD + FDP333 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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