Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 March 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 23 to 26 Mar 2023
- Respondents
- 1,200
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU26.5%-5.5
- SPD23.0%-0.5
- Grüne15.0%-0.5
- AfD13.5%-0.5
- FDP7.5%+2.5
- Linke4.0%+1.0
- Others10.5%+3.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 1 Mar 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.5%, followed by SPD on 23.0%. 1,200 people were surveyed from 23 to 26 Mar 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 1 Mar 2023, CDU/CSU loses 5.5 points, FDP gains 2.5 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 3.4 points higher and CDU/CSU 2.3 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Mar 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +3.4average 19.6
- CDU/CSU -2.3average 28.8
- Grüne -2.1average 17.1
- AfD -1.6average 15.1
- Linke -1.1average 5.1
- FDP +0.9average 6.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU195
- SPD170
- Grüne111
- AfD99
- FDP55
- CDU/CSU + SPD365 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD405 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + AfD380 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP349 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + FDP336 of 630
- SPD + AfD + FDP324 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.