Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 1 March 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Feb 2023 to 1 Mar 2023
- Respondents
- 1,419
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%+8.0
- SPD23.5%-0.5
- Grüne15.5%-2.5
- AfD14.0%-0.5
- FDP5.0%-1.5
- Linke3.0%-0.5
- Others7.0%-2.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 Jan 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by SPD on 23.5%. 1,419 people were surveyed from 27 Feb 2023 to 1 Mar 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 Jan 2023, CDU/CSU gains 8.0 points, Grüne loses 2.5 points, FDP loses 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 3.4 points higher and CDU/CSU 3.1 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Mar 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +3.4average 20.1
- CDU/CSU +3.1average 28.9
- Linke -1.9average 4.9
- FDP -1.4average 6.4
- Grüne -1.3average 16.8
- AfD -0.9average 14.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU224
- SPD165
- Grüne108
- AfD98
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + SPD389 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD322 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + AfD371 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.