Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 January 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 26 to 27 Jan 2023
- Respondents
- 1,421
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU24.0%-0.5
- SPD24.0%+2.5
- Grüne18.0%+1.0
- AfD14.5%-2.0
- FDP6.5%-1.5
- Linke3.5%±0
- Others9.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 Jan 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 24.0%, followed by SPD on 24.0%. 1,421 people were surveyed from 26 to 27 Jan 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 Jan 2023, SPD gains 2.5 points, AfD loses 2.0 points, FDP loses 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 4.4 points higher and CDU/CSU 4.1 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Jan 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +4.4average 19.6
- CDU/CSU -4.1average 28.1
- Linke -1.6average 5.1
- Grüne -0.2average 18.2
- AfD +0.2average 14.3
- FDP -0.2average 6.7
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU174
- SPD174
- Grüne130
- AfD105
- FDP47
- CDU/CSU + SPD348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD409 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + AfD409 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP351 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + FDP351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP326 of 630
- SPD + AfD + FDP326 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.