Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 27 January 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
26 to 27 Jan 2023
Respondents
1,421
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU24.0%-0.5
  • SPD24.0%+2.5
  • Grüne18.0%+1.0
  • AfD14.5%-2.0
  • FDP6.5%-1.5
  • Linke3.5%±0
  • Others9.5%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 Jan 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 24.0%, followed by SPD on 24.0%. 1,421 people were surveyed from 26 to 27 Jan 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 Jan 2023, SPD gains 2.5 points, AfD loses 2.0 points, FDP loses 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 4.4 points higher and CDU/CSU 4.1 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Jan 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +4.4average 19.6
  • CDU/CSU -4.1average 28.1
  • Linke -1.6average 5.1
  • Grüne -0.2average 18.2
  • AfD +0.2average 14.3
  • FDP -0.2average 6.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 174 seatsSPD: 174 seatsGrüne: 130 seatsAfD: 105 seatsFDP: 47 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU174
  • SPD174
  • Grüne130
  • AfD105
  • FDP47
  • CDU/CSU + SPD348 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD409 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD409 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP351 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP326 of 630
  • SPD + AfD + FDP326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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