Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 16 January 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 16 Jan 2023
- Respondents
- 1,500
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU24.5%-0.5
- SPD21.5%-1.0
- Grüne17.0%+0.5
- AfD16.5%+2.0
- FDP8.0%+1.0
- Linke3.5%-0.5
- Others9.0%-1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 9 Dec 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 24.5%, followed by SPD on 21.5%. 1,500 people were surveyed from 15 to 16 Jan 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 9 Dec 2022, AfD gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU 3.7 points lower and AfD 2.4 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jan 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -3.7average 28.2
- AfD +2.4average 14.1
- SPD +2.2average 19.3
- Grüne -1.6average 18.6
- Linke -1.6average 5.1
- FDP +1.0average 7.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU176
- SPD155
- Grüne122
- AfD119
- FDP58
- CDU/CSU + SPD331 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD417 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + AfD396 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP356 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP353 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + FDP335 of 630
- SPD + AfD + FDP332 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.