Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 October 2022 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
18 to 21 Oct 2022
Respondents
1,910
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU25.0%±0
  • SPD22.0%+1.0
  • Grüne17.5%+1.5
  • AfD16.0%±0
  • FDP8.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.5%-1.0
  • Others8.0%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 Oct 2022.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.0%, followed by SPD on 22.0%. 1,910 people were surveyed from 18 to 21 Oct 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 Oct 2022, Grüne gains 1.5 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 3.3 points higher and CDU/CSU 2.6 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Oct 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +3.3average 18.7
  • CDU/CSU -2.6average 27.6
  • Grüne -2.6average 20.1
  • AfD +1.6average 14.4
  • FDP +1.5average 6.5
  • Linke -1.4average 4.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 178 seatsSPD: 157 seatsGrüne: 124 seatsAfD: 114 seatsFDP: 57 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU178
  • SPD157
  • Grüne124
  • AfD114
  • FDP57
  • CDU/CSU + SPD335 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD416 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD395 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP349 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP338 of 630
  • SPD + AfD + FDP328 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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