Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 6 October 2022 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
3 to 6 Oct 2022
Respondents
1,923
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU25.0%-1.0
  • SPD21.0%-1.0
  • Grüne16.0%-2.0
  • AfD16.0%+2.5
  • FDP9.0%+1.0
  • Linke4.5%+0.5
  • Others8.5%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 22 Sep 2022.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.0%, followed by SPD on 21.0%. 1,923 people were surveyed from 3 to 6 Oct 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 22 Sep 2022, AfD gains 2.5 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Grüne 4.3 points lower and CDU/CSU 2.8 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 6 Oct 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -4.3average 20.3
  • CDU/CSU -2.8average 27.8
  • SPD +2.7average 18.3
  • AfD +2.6average 13.4
  • FDP +1.9average 7.1
  • Linke -0.8average 5.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 181 seatsSPD: 152 seatsGrüne: 116 seatsAfD: 116 seatsFDP: 65 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU181
  • SPD152
  • Grüne116
  • AfD116
  • FDP65
  • CDU/CSU + SPD333 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD413 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD384 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP362 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP362 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP333 of 630
  • SPD + AfD + FDP333 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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