Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 31 July 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
22 to 28 Jul 2026
Respondents
1,456
Method
Telefonisch
  • AfD27.0%±0
  • CDU/CSU21.0%-1.0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • SPD13.0%±0
  • Linke12.0%+1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • Others5.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 3 Jul 2026.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has AfD ahead on 27.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 21.0%. 1,456 people were surveyed from 22 to 28 Jul 2026, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 3 Jul 2026, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +1.2average 13.8
  • CDU/CSU -0.9average 21.9
  • SPD +0.6average 12.4
  • Linke +0.6average 11.4
  • AfD -0.5average 27.5
  • FDP -0.5average 4.5
  • BSW -0.3average 3.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 193 seatsCDU/CSU: 151 seatsGrüne: 107 seatsSPD: 93 seatsLinke: 86 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD193
  • CDU/CSU151
  • Grüne107
  • SPD93
  • Linke86
  • AfD + CDU/CSU344 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + SPD393 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke386 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke344 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke330 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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