Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 31 January 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
22 to 28 Jan 2025
Respondents
1,461
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU30.0%-1.0
  • AfD20.0%+2.0
  • SPD15.0%-2.0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • BSW5.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke4.0%+1.0
  • Others8.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 20 Dec 2024.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,461 people were surveyed from 22 to 28 Jan 2025, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 20 Dec 2024, AfD gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -0.8average 15.8
  • CDU/CSU -0.5average 30.5
  • AfD -0.5average 20.5
  • Grüne +0.4average 13.6
  • BSW +0.2average 4.8
  • FDP +0.1average 3.9
  • Linke ±0average 4.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 225 seatsAfD: 150 seatsSPD: 113 seatsGrüne: 105 seatsBSW: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU225
  • AfD150
  • SPD113
  • Grüne105
  • BSW37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD375 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD338 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne330 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne368 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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