Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 20 December 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
11 to 17 Dec 2024
Respondents
1,452
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU31.0%-1.0
  • AfD18.0%±0
  • SPD17.0%+2.0
  • Grüne14.0%+1.0
  • BSW5.0%-1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others8.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 29 Nov 2024.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,452 people were surveyed from 11 to 17 Dec 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 29 Nov 2024, SPD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +1.1average 12.9
  • BSW -1.1average 6.1
  • CDU/CSU -0.9average 31.9
  • SPD +0.7average 16.3
  • AfD -0.3average 18.3
  • FDP +0.2average 3.8
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 230 seatsAfD: 133 seatsSPD: 126 seatsGrüne: 104 seatsBSW: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU230
  • AfD133
  • SPD126
  • Grüne104
  • BSW37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD363 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne334 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne363 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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