Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 1 November 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
23 to 29 Oct 2024
Respondents
1,443
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU32.0%+1.0
  • AfD17.0%±0
  • SPD16.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • BSW8.0%+1.0
  • FDP3.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others10.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 4 Oct 2024.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,443 people were surveyed from 23 to 29 Oct 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 4 Oct 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, BSW gains 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Nov 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • FDP -1.1average 4.1
  • CDU/CSU -0.6average 32.6
  • AfD -0.6average 17.6
  • SPD +0.6average 15.4
  • Grüne +0.3average 10.7
  • BSW +0.2average 7.8
  • Linke +0.1average 2.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 240 seatsAfD: 127 seatsSPD: 120 seatsGrüne: 83 seatsBSW: 60 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU240
  • AfD127
  • SPD120
  • Grüne83
  • BSW60
  • CDU/CSU + AfD367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne323 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne330 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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